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• Ncaa Longshot Picks College Football

Northwestern Wildcats vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

Saturday, December 19, 2020 – 12:00 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium

Rick Gehman shares his pick for longshot to win the Genesis Open. 1 hour ago  Frank Schwab joins Minty Bets to give three long shot picks to win the National Title in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Like us on Facebook to see similar stories Please give an overall site rating.

Stakes of the Matchup

The 5-0 and 4th ranked Ohio State Buckeyes host the 6-1 and the 14th ranked Northwestern Wildcats in the Big Ten Championship this Saturday. Ohio State is projected to easily win, but they are usually projected to win easily. The NCAA Football odds have been released for Saturday’s game, and the Buckeyes are favored by 20.5 points at some of the best sportsbooks. OSU is obviously should be favored to win, but I believe Northwestern will keep the score closer than expected.

Northwestern has been a surprise this season as they are typically a borderline top 25 team. They beat Wisconsin 17-7 outright as 7.5 point underdogs and have one of the best defenses in college football this year. Win or lose, I think they keep the Ohio State offense at bay. I think there is a chance that the Wildcats pull off the epic upset.

How Northwestern and Ohio State Will Matchup

The Big Ten is known for its defense and that is why it is not surprising that this year’s conference championship features two defensive powerhouses. Northwestern allows only 14.6 points per game which is the 3rd lowest in the FBS, and the lowest out of all power five schools.

Ohio State also has a strong defense that allows only 23.2 points per game, the 34th lowest in the FBS. For the Buckeyes to cover the spread, they would have to perform exceptionally well against Wildcats defense. Additionally, OSU probably has to limit NW to fewer than 14 points. I think both are unlikely and that is why the Northwestern spread is a no brainer as a bet. Additionally, NW could limit OSU’s offense and win a low scoring game.

There are two reasons why Ohio State is heavily favored despite Northwestern’s defense. The first reason is that OSU is popular among the betting public, so the linemakers must shade the lines. The second reason is because the Buckeyes average 46.6 points per game which is the 4th highest in the FBS, and the second highest among power five teams.

One reason why Ohio State’s offense is so good is because it led by Heisman hopeful and quarterback Justin Fields. Fields has a completion percentage of 78.1% which is the highest of any FBS quarterback. Unfortunately for Fields, Northwestern’s passing defense allows opposing quarterbacks to complete only 51.31% of their passes the 4th lowest in the FBS, and lowest of any power five school. If Fields can be contained by the Wildcats, they will have to rely on their rushing offense against a Wildcat defense which only allows 3.8 yards per carry, the 35th lowest in the FBS.

Prediction

Ohio State is a great team, but they have padded their stats against weak opponents in a shortened schedule. In their one game against a top-10 team, the Buckeyes were favored by 21 points against Indiana. In that game Indiana lost by only a touchdown. If Ohio State beats Northwestern, I think that it will be like the Indiana game where they win by only one or two touchdowns. That is why I am backing the Northwestern spread at 20.5 points with my NCAAF picks.

While Ohio State should be favored to win, there is enormous value in betting on Northwestern to win. I think there is a plausible chance that NW performs very well on defense and wins a close low-scoring game. That is why I am also betting that Northwestern wins outright against Ohio State.

NCAAF Picks:Northwestern +20.5 (-109) & Northwestern Moneyline (+730) at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review)

Waste Management Phoenix Open

Thursday, February 4, 2021 at 6:00 AM (TPC Scottsdale)

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This Thursday, the PGA Tour’s 2021 Waste Management Open will begin!

Before I discuss my longshot/sleepers golf wagers, let’s take a look at the betting odds of past champions of this event to see if we can find any historical trends.

Here is a list of the last six winners of the Waste Management Phoenix Open and that golfer’s opening odds the week they won the event:

2020 Webb Simpson +1400

2019 Rickie Fowler +2200

2018 Gary Woodland +5000

2017 Hideki Matsuyama +1100

2016 Hideki Matsuyama +2800

2015 Brooks Koepka +4000

Upon reviewing the data noted above I observe a few trends that I think are important for golf bettors to consider prior to placing any longshot wagers this week. First of all, based on the opening odds of the last six winners of this tournament, I just don’t see the eventual champion of this year’s Waste Management Phoenix Open having astronomically high odds to win. Additionally, the historical data noted above tells me that the six previous winners of this event are all outstanding ball strikers.

Now that we have discussed relevant data related to the last six winners of this week’s PGA Tour event, let’s shift our focus to my favorite longshot bets for the 2021 Waste Management Phoenix Open!

Here are three golfers to consider to placing on your card to finish in the top 20 at higher odds.

Bo Hoag +500 - The 32 year old American arrives at this week's Waste Management Phoenix Open on the heels of two consecutive top 18 finishes on the PGA Tour, including a 16th place result at the American Express two weeks ago.

Nick Hardy +700 - The talented young American had to make it through Monday qualifying just to be in the field for this week's PGA Tour event. I watched his final few holes in the Monday qualifier and an interview Hardy had with the media after his round. Based on what I saw, it is obvious to me that the 25 year old from Illinois is highly motivated to succeed. Additionally, I like the fact that he recently performed at a high level on the PGA Tour. More specifically, Hardy finished 14th at the Sony Open last month.

Sam Ryder +750 - Ryder fired a third round 67 at last week's Farmers Insurance Open en route to an eventual tenth place finish. In relation to this week’s current listed 2021 Waste Management Phoenix Open field, in the last eight rounds played on the PGA Tour, Ryder ranks 10th in strokes gained ball striking, fifth in strokes gained approach, and first in GIR (greens in regulation).

Ncaa Longshot Picks College Football