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NASCAR Cup Series Vegas Odds. 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Betting Odds. Michigan International Speedway: NBCSN, MRN, NBC Sports: TBA: Coke Zero Sugar 400: Aug.
On top of that, Truex Jr. Finished 12th at the FireKeepers Casino 400, the last race run at the Michigan International Speedway. Joey Logano comes into the Pure Michigan 400 this year as the defending champion of the last race run at the Michigan International Speedway and is the second favorite to win the race behind Truex Jr. NASCAR at Michigan: Vegas odds, fantasy advice, prediction, sleepers, drivers to watch. NASCAR heads to Michigan International Speedway for the second time this season Sunday for the Consumers. The model is also targeting three other drivers with NASCAR at Michigan odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag, including a massive long shot who's higher than 30-1. NASCAR odds, lines, picks and predictions 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 odds, predictions and picks The NASCAR Cup Series heads down to the Homestead-Miami Speedway for the Dixie Vodka 400 at 3 p.m. Below we analyze the 2021 Dixie.
NASCAR Cup Betting Resources
FireKeepers Casino 400
Consumers Energy 400
Date: Saturday Aug. 8 and Sunday Aug. 9
Venue: Michigan International Speedway
Location: Brooklyn, Michigan
Television-Time: NBCSN, 4:00 p.m., 4:30 p.m. ET
Handicapping NASCAR at Michigan
There are so many important happenings this weekend at Michigan International Speedway that it’s hard where to start. Since this is a NASCAR betting piece I’ll start with the fact we have two races to bet on this weekend.
Yes, It’s a Saturday-Sunday doubleheader with each race reduced to 312 miles with the top-20 start position in Sunday’s race set by the inverted results from Saturday.
The Saturday winner starts 20th on Sunday and when NASCAR unveiled the two races in one weekend in June at Pocono, I thought the Sunday race was wild with the best cars starting 16th through 20th marching through the field to the front.
Saturday’s race saw Kevin Harvick dominate in clean air and hold off runner-up Denny Hamlin. On Sunday it was Hamlin winning with Harvick as runner-up. Aric Almirola also had top-fives in both races.
So it’s easy to understand why the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted Harvick as the 4/1 favorite with Hamlin next at 5/1 odds. Almirola, who had been 25/1 or 20/1 the last eight weeks, is now listed at 14/1 to win Saturday’s race.
Almirola currently is on a run of nine straight top-10 finishes and despite the odds drop I still bet him to win.
NASCAR Cup Odds - Michigan (Saturday)
- Kevin Harvick +400
- Denny Hamlin +600
- Joey Logano +650
- Chase Elliott +700
- Brad Keselowski +700
- Martin Truex Jr. +800
- Kyle Busch +1000
- Ryan Blaney +1300
- Aric Almirola +1800
- Kurt Busch +2500
- Alex Bowman +3300
- (Odds Subject to Change)
NASCAR Cup Series
Handicapping Michigan
Perfect 10 for Almirola?
“Michigan is a weird place for me because, in my mind, I feel like I run well there,” Almirola said. “I won a Truck race there years ago and, from that point forward, I just always loved going to Michigan. My wife’s family is from Michigan, so I go to Michigan with such a great attitude. I felt like in our first race there last year we had a lot of speed.
I felt we had a top-five car there at Michigan and didn’t execute and things didn’t go our way with the restarts and I didn’t get the result. I’m excited about going back. Going to Michigan, there’s always a lot of pride for the manufacturers. I’d love to go there and keep the trophy in Ford’s backyard.”
Almirola brings up another fun fact I love about Michigan races regarding the manufacturer's battle. Ford leads the way with 39 Michigan wins, including the last four, and its Mercury division also won 12 times in the manufacturers battle near Motor City. Chevrolet has 26 wins and Toyota has five.
Kick the Tires
A couple of other fun facts regarding Michigan is that this will be the 15th and 16th race using the race package with engines producing 550 horsepower.
And the teams will also be using the Goodyear tire compound used at Las Vegas, Kentucky, and Texas, or better known as the tire that doesn’t wear and produced the biggest back/back long shot winners in NASCAR betting history in Las Vegas. Cole Custer’s win at Kentucky paid 300/1 and Austin Dillon’s win paid out 100/1 odds.
'With limited track time under the current schedules, teams enter this weekend’s races at Michigan already being familiar with this tire set-up,' said Greg Stucker, Goodyear’s director of racing.
'In the past, under more ‘normal’ conditions, teams would be able to work through the practice sessions to dial in on their car set-ups, with a big part of that being finding the balance on how the tire is working with the track. We’ve aligned this recent group of race tracks based on the smooth track surfaces and similar factors like speeds and loads, and that helps teams as they build their notebooks from which to work. That will be enhanced this weekend, of course, as Cup teams will run races on consecutive days, so it will be interesting to see who unloads strong on Saturday and who will be able to make adjustments and improve for Sunday.'
So basically, we’re going to see lots of differing pit strategies with the new late-race strategy being just a splash of fuel and no tires to better improve track position. This gives plenty of reasons to support a long shot driver like Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to win at 200/1 odds. He’s had two top-fives using this week’s race package.
Michigan Experience
The previous 14 races with this race package saw Hamlin and Harvick each win four times which also justifies why they’re favored. Hamlin, of course, leads the series with five wins with his other win coming in the Daytona 500. Neither Harvick nor Hamlin has won using the 750 package which raced last week at New Hampshire.
Harvick has three Michigan wins, including two of the last three races there, and also has seven runner-ups which are second-most all-time behind Jeff Gordon (8). Matt Kenseth (80/1), Kurt Busch (25/1), and Joey Logano (10/1) also have three Michigan wins. Hamlin and Ryan Newman (100/1) each have two wins, and Kyle Busch (10/1), Jimmie Johnson (40/1), and Clint Bowyer (40/1) each have one win.
Martin Truex Jr. (10/1) leads all active drivers at Michigan with most starts (28) without a win and Michigan native Brad Keselowski (8/1) is next at 21 starts.
Starting position has proven to be very important at Michigan. Logano’s win last spring came from the pole making it 21 wins in 101 Cup races (21%). Clean air up front has proven to be important this season as well. The deepest start position a Michigan winner ever had was 32nd by Mark Martin in 2009. The deepest an active driver started and won was 24th by Kurt Busch in 2015.
Again, no practice or qualifying as will be the case all season to lessen the social interaction of crews, drivers, and track staffing. We've seen Harvick and Hamlin continually come off their haulers fast and ready to roll with not a lot of tinkering needed.
Their notes are solid each week with this race package and they’ve been able to recreate the set-ups in their sleep with no sweat. Almirola has been almost as good the last nine weeks but still doesn’t have a win. I’m thinking he gets one of the two races this weekend.
Keep your Eyes On!
Ryan Blaney has been dropped to 8/1 odds despite his only win coming at Talladega. His car has been coming off the hauler ready to roll but has a hard time closing out races he should win. He’s led 517 laps this season. His No. 12 has been so consistently good all season in every race package that a win is eventually going to find him. This should be a good track for him.
Eric Jones is a Michigan native being offered at 30/1 odds and he’s a good look to throw into the NASCAR betting portfolio this week in both odds to win and matchups. He’s got Joe Gibbs Racing equipment and I like what I saw the last two times they used this week’s race package with a sixth at Texas and fifth at Kansas.
Truex also was strong at Kansas leading 44 laps and finishing third. He was also runner-up at Kentucky after leading 57 laps. His only win this season came at Martinsville with the 750 package, but the 550 package is looking much closer to the 2017-19 version of Truex. It’s almost a dare from the sportsbook moving Truex up to 10/1. They’re daring me to bet him, so I did.
The books are also daring me to take winless Kyle Busch at 10/1 odds, but I don’t think I’ll bite on that one. How about 14/1? The problem with Busch is that even in his best years when everything was clicking with his universe, Michigan was still an issue. His only win came in 2011 but he’s on a roll of six straight top-10s there.
Team Penske has nine Michigan wins which are third-most in track history behind Roush Fenway racing (13) and the Wood Bros. (11) and Keselowski could add to that total.
His last race with this package saw him finish second in Kansas and he also won the Coca-Cola 600 with it in May. Logano hasn’t been as good as Keselowski or Blaney with this package and his only top-fives using it came with late pit strategy (Las Vegas, Texas) using this week’s Goodyear tire.
One other Penske note: team owner Roger Penske once owned Michigan International Speedway and also built California Speedway which is why both 2-mile tracks are so similar. And a betting note on that is Alex Bowman (40/1) won the California race in March just before the shutdown.
If you check my Darlington preview from early May, you’ll see me glowing about Bowman and his team having the perfect mix with the race package making them ahead of everyone else.
It was a good explanation of why he was 10/1 to win. He led 41 laps and finished second. He hasn't had a top-five in the 11 races since with this package. Somewhere in there, he signed a contract extension.
I know I forgot some Michigan nuggets I was excited to throw out, but I think I’m out of space now, so it’s time to go. Enjoy the double-header.
One last thing: bet Sunday’s race with the Saturday race results in hand. Same car, no practice. The real practice for Sunday’s race is the results from Saturday’s race. If a driver is a good Saturday they’ll be good Sunday as well.
NASCAR Weekly Picks
FireKeepers Casino 400
Top-5 Finish Prediction
1) #11 Denny Hamlin 5/1 Bet Now at DraftKings2) #10 Aric Almirola 14/1 Bet Now at DraftKings
3) #4 Kevin Harvick 3/1
4) #2 Brad Keselowski 10/1
5) #19 Martin Truex Jr. 10/1
Consumers Energy 400
Top-5 Finish Prediction
1) #10 Aric Almirola 15/12) #2 Brad Keselowski 10/1
3) #4 Kevin Harvick 7/2
4)
#11 Denny Hamlin 9/2 Bet Now at DraftKings5) #20 Erik Jones 30/1 Bet Now at DraftKings